Inaccurate Polling: Why An Independent Really Can Win Here!
There are only two things we can tell from the election polls:
- the Tories are toast.
- Labour will win and win big.
For the rest, the jury’s out. And nowhere more so than in our new constituency of St Neots and Mid Cambs: a so-called ‘three-way marginal’ where the usual ‘rules’ don’t apply, and where an Independent really can win.
The data for meaningful polling just isn’t there. With very few exceptions, the media isn’t interested in individual results. They just want to know who will form the next Government and how big their majority will be. (OK, maybe which Cabinet Ministers might sensationally lose their seats!)
But it means nobody funds the expensive polling that might tell you what’s really happening here. It’s why you should ignore everything else — from leaflets with dodgy yellow bar charts claiming “only we can beat the Conservatives” to tactical voting sites telling you which way to vote.
It’s why a strong Independent like me can win here. It’s why you can vote with your heart — not holding your nose — to tell Westminster loud and clear that you choose principles and problem solving over party politics!
Here’s why I’m right about that…
Polling Predictions: What Should Happen
When you see that the latest poll for the St Neots and Mid Cambs constituency gives the blue/yellow/red party an x% chance of winning, you might imagine a polling company asked people in the constituency who they’d vote for…
To do that properly, for a 75,000-person constituency, you’d have to poll at least 400 people, and more like 1000. They’d need to be randomly selected too. And that’s really expensive!
What Actually Happens
Almost all the polls for St Neots & Mid Cambs are so-called ‘MRP polls’.
These work by asking about 10,000 to 20,000 voters from across the country about their voting intentions. Typically, they talk to about 35 people in each constituency. They determine the demographics of these people (things like age, income, gender, and social class) and then map their voting intentions onto each constituency based on its demographic profile.
MRP polls simply project national swings onto a constituency. They don’t take account of the strength of individual candidates, their campaigns, or any local factors at play. Specifically, MRP polls don’t account for the impact of a strong independent (like me), or someone running a poor campaign locally.
What Do The St Neots & Mid Cambs Polls Show?
The Lib Dem and Labour candidates are cherry-picking the results of any poll that predicts that they can win. What a shock! But different polls give different results.
The reality is that the local MRP polls are split three ways: between the Lib Dems, Conservatives and Labour. Yet, all are unreliable, because none of them factors in the impact of my campaign or my previous electoral success.
In fact, none of the polls take account of the relative strengths of each individual candidate and their campaign. They are simply using national factors and party polling to predict the outcome in our constituency.
As an engineer, I would disregard any indicator that gave me a wide spread of outcomes as ‘unreliable’. That’s clearly the case here — and you should ignore these polls too.
What About Tactical Voting?
Tactical voting websites are based on the same unreliable polling data above. As we’ve seen, the polls are split and don’t account for what’s actually happening on the ground, or how voters feel about individual candidates.
This is a new constituency. None of the polls clearly predict a winner. The reality is that it’s likely to be a close four-way split. Meaning tactical voting won’t work here.
It’s Not Just Me!
It’s not just me saying this. Even those at the top of the big party campaigns know the figures don’t tell the whole picture.
For example, check out this Bloomberg article on Labour’s vulnerabilities: www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-06-28/ailbhe-rea-and-julian-harris-labour-s-vulnerabilities which discusses “a scenario actively being discussed by people at the top of the Labour Party. Yes, they might win big, but in places where voters have another viable option — a Green, an independent — they could yet see unexpected losses on July 4.”
Vote Well!
So you’re better off voting for the best candidate. Not holding your nose and hoping for the best. If you can’t do that now, when can you?
The only poll that really counts is the one on July 4th. Please vote. And use your vote wisely.
